May 16th, 2008

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Georgians demand Russian withdrawl from Abkhazia and Southern Osetia.
(AP Photo / Shakh Aivazov)

Could Abkhazia spark a world war?

What happened
The breakaway Georgian region Abkhazia said it shot down two unmanned Georgian spy aircraft Sunday—a claim Georgia disputes—raising tensions in an already ominous standoff between Abkhazia, Georgia, and Russia, which backs Abkhazia. A Georgian spy probe was shot down over Abkhazia April 20—Abkhazia claimed responsibility, but Georgia said Russian warplanes shot down the drone. Russian and United Nations peacekeepers have been stationed in Abkhazia since it declared independence in the early 1990s, but Russia increased its troop presence in April and accused Georgia of planning an invasion of the region. Russia said the use of spy planes bolstered its case against Georgia. NATO accused Russia of provoking tensions with Georgia. (BBC News)

What the commentators said
“It’s tough to pay attention to wars that haven’t yet broken out in places we can’t even spell,” said the Los Angeles Times in an editorial (free registration), but we should care that Abkhazia is “perilously close” to open warfare. Russia is trying to keep Georgia out of NATO, and its attempts to provoke Georgia into a NATO-ending invasion “have been nothing short of outrageous.” But Georgia “is fighting dirty as well,” putting a hold on Russia’s entry into the World Trade Organization. The U.S. wants Georgia in NATO and Russia in the WTO, but it only has sway over Georgia.

This might be a good time to rethink our support of Georgia’s NATO bid, said Matthew Yglesias in The Altantic, at least until it comes to “some kind of stable resolution” of its problems in Abkhazia and fellow breakaway region South Ossetia. It isn’t wise to extend NATO’s “absolute security guarantees to a country in Georgia’s position unless there’s some overwhelming strategic rationale for doing so,” and “just to be nice” doesn’t cut it.

With or without formal NATO membership, said Anne Applebaum in Slate, “the West will have to come up with a major response” if Russia invades Georgia. Georgia is “an emerging democracy” with troops in Iraq, and it has “many implicit assurances of security” from the U.S. and NATO. This is worrisome. World War I had a similarly obscure start, and trouble in Abkhazia could “become the starting point of a larger war.”

It certainly could, said Alexander Golts in The Moscow Times, but not because Russia or Georgia actually wants “this conflict to escalate toward a military conflict.” Both sides have political and strategic reasons to provoke the other, but they are playing a dangerous game of brinksmanship. The two sides’ “aggressive” posturing could sharply escalate out of control, like at the start of World War I, and that could have “tragic consequences for the entire world.”

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Recent comments | 6 total
Sophia | May 8th, 2008
Current problems that beset Georgia are rooted in the legacy of Russian empire. already at that time all efforts wrer undertaken to destroy even a semblenec of georgian statehood, ban everything Georgian,execute Georgian nobility and inteligencia, carry out genocide of Abkhaz in the form of Muhajirstvo. in 1921 after having occupied and annexed Georgia once again Russia seized considerable chunk of the Black sea coast(Sochi), and planted the long term mines-created the Abkhaz and southe osetian autonomies in the terirtoy of the country set to go off upon restoration of Georgia's independent statehood. Russia's devilish policy provided backing for this actions by instilling to Abkhaz and osetians feeling of being conquered and having nothing common to Georgia, attempting to provoke frictions between megrelians, acharians swans, and the rest of Georgia. "Divide and Rule"-this principle is still a corenstone of Russia's policy. in reality term Georgian served as an appelation to describe iberian-caucasian ethnos and would include abkhaz, in the same way as acharians, Sawns and Khevsurs. Notably, Russia harmsAbkhaz the most since uprooting them from their historical-cultural basis is the easy way leading to their extinction. as for so called South-osetia autonomy-if this status is to be granted to the ethnic group by virtue of immigrating to a foreign country and living compactly there, what would we do to other Osetians spread out in Georgia? Why then other ethnic groups in georgia are left out? Let's create authomomus republic for all of them. on this basis alone, about houndred authonomies can be astablished in New York. Some countries would get 5-6 authonomies. Russia first forced his passports to the population of Abkhazia and south osetia and now is crying wolf it should protect its citizens. in fact, it turned Abkhaz and Osetians illegals into their own country. Following Russias logic Georgia has every right to demand this illegals to be taken back in Russia. Russia itself set an example by expelling citizens of Georgia, not sparing even Russian citizens of Georgian origin. Russia has already made his own interests known so that it is clear that it is not a concerned party,but main participant and instigator of the conflicts. In this context, the Russian "peacekeepers" do everything but keeping peace during this fourteen years, bombing of the teritory of Georgia, encouraging and supporting Separatists by political, ecomonic and military means. Undoubtfully Rusiia is a big country but can the size and population can only define its significance? what the UN and other peace organizations are created for? What is the meaning of democracy and international law? In order to put everything in its right place and bring about the peace it would suffice for Russian "peacekeepers" to live Georgia. The Euro-Atlantic community of democracies has to be consious of its duty to protect not only georgia, but ideals of Democracy and freedom. Otherwise Russia will next time unleash perversity on them making the world pay high price. Russians have achieved one victory when their direct influenec on European countries blocked the way to NATO for us, countries that are really struggling to free ourselves from Russian imperialism.
William A. Mcgowen | May 8th, 2008
Once again the Russian side demonstrates to whole world that they are not neutral side in this conflict. Furthermore they do not give any explanations how Russian citizens appear on conflict territory?
Hermione's Boyfriend | May 8th, 2008
Why is Abkhazia such a big deal? Harry Potter's cool but I didn't know it coudl lead to something like this.
Boris | May 8th, 2008
Those darn Russians!They hate our "democracies" They hate "our freedom"...
Metin | May 6th, 2008
Georgian and some Russian politicians do not seek to conceal their annoyance at the ‘unruly’ Abkhazians, who as far back as in the 19th century were officially declared ‘a guilty nation’ for their repeated uprisings in defence of their freedom and honour. Today we are impeding friendly relations between Georgia and Russia, for, let us say, ‘sticking in their throats’. In other words, we are guilty for the simple reason that we still exist. Is it really true that being part of the world-community we Abkhazians, numbering about 100,000 in Abkhazia itself, are somehow doing harm to this community? Is it possible that if mankind, having already lost in the 19th century our brothers the Ubykhs, is now to lose us Abkhazians at the close of the 20th century, it will find itself in some way enriched in the 3rd millennium A.D.?! The fact is that people are being exterminated and the world is keeping silent... Well, almost - for such news-agencies as Reuters, AP, the BBC, whenever they refer to us, our standard epithets are ‘separatists’ and ‘rebels’... How is it that we are separatists when we are actually not separating from, or attacking, anybody? Are there any resolutions of the Abkhazian Parliament adopted before the start of the war on 14th August 1992 (or even several months afterwards) which have declared secession from Georgia? There is not one! In fact, it was the Abkhazian side that suggested building our relations with Georgia on an agreed, federative basis. Therefore, it was the Abkhazian side which came out with proposals that would actually preserve the unity of Georgia. The response was the despatch to Abkhazia of tanks, fighter-bombers and guardsmen armed to the teeth... Abkhazia is Abkhazia! http://www.circassianworld.com/Abkhazia_is_Abkhazia.html
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